As of April 22, 2010, there are important new federal lead-based paint regulations to take into account if you’re having any work done in a home built prior to 1978.  Here’s a quote from the lead-based paint information page on the EPA website (emphasis mine):

“EPA requires that firms performing renovation, repair, and painting projects that disturb lead-based paint in pre-1978 homes, child care facilities and schools be certified by EPA and that they use certified renovators who are trained by EPA-approved training providers to follow lead-safe work practices. Individuals can become certified renovators by taking an eight-hour training course from an EPA-approved training provider.”

“The rule does not apply to minor maintenance or repair activities where less than six square feet of lead-based paint is disturbed in a room or where less then 20 square feet of lead-based paint is disturbed on the exterior. Window replacement is not minor maintenance or repair.”

Note that if you’re a homeowner doing the work yourself on your own home, the rule does not apply to you; however, if you are doing work on your pre-1978 rental property or pre-1978 space rented by a child-care facility you are required to be EPA-certified and follow certain procedures regarding disclosure to tenants, etc. (details on the EPA web page.)

Here’s a link to the EPA pamphlet Renovate Right: Important Lead Hazard Information for Families, Child Care Providers, and Schools.

Homeowner Opt-Out Waiver:

For now, homeowners hiring a remodeling firm or contractor for work that would normally qualify for the lead-based paint regulation can opt out of the EPA certification requirement by signing a waiver stating that no children under the agent of six regularly visit the home, no one in the home is pregnant, and the property is not a child-occupied facility.

However, amendments that go into effect on July 6, 2010 remove this opt-out waiver option.  More information on changes to the Lead: Renovation, Repair and Painting rule on the National Association of Home Builders website.

The Seattle area real estate housing supply heat maps are out for February 2010 and show a significant shift from what was primarily a Buyer’s Market in 2009 (green, defined as over 6 months of housing supply) to a Balanced Market in 2010 (yellow, defined as 3 to 6 months of housing supply.)  Red areas indicated a Seller’s Market, defined as 0 to 3 months of housing supply.

Feb. 2010 Months of Housing Supply (right) compared to 2009 (left). Red = Seller's Market, Yellow = Balanced Market, Green = Buyer's Market.

Click the image to see a larger version of the heat maps.  “Months of Supply” means the number of months that it would take to deplete the current housing inventory if homes continued to go off market at the current rate and no new listings were added.

A few years ago FHA loans made up only around 3 percent of the home loan market. Now they make up closer to 50 percent, due to their lower down payment requirements (3.5.%) and less stringent qualification standards, combined with the virtual disappearance of conventional zero-down loans and second mortgages.

Some quick background: FHA loans are backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and despite their less strict qualification standards have typically had a pretty healthy rate of repayment; however, during the mortgage crisis many subprime borrowers turned to the FHA program, and it’s expected that the FHA loan repayment rate will worsen significantly over the next few years.  Bankrate.com has a pretty good overview of the FHA loan program.

Changes in Store for FHA Loans:

On December 2 HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan announced the following proposed changes that will affect new FHA borrowers:

1. Increasing the required initial cash investment.

This could be done by increasing the down payment from the current minimum of 3.5%, and/or by not allowing borrowers to finance the FHA premium.

2. Increasing the minimum FICO (credit) scores requirement.

3. Increasing mortgage insurance premiums.

4. Reducing the allowable seller concession to the buyer from its current cap of 6 percent, to as low as 3 percent.

These are big changes, and not all of them need Congressional approval.  In other words, some are expected to be implemented early in 2010, so if you know of someone planning to purchase a home with an FHA loan this year please let them know about this post!

Here are the October 2009 housing inventory supply numbers going back five years for selected Seattle areas.* Months of Inventory (MOI) refers to the number of months it would take the current housing supply to be completely sold if no new listings were added.

The geographical area is marked at the top left of each chart. You can also click here to view stats for all Seattle and Eastside areas (opens as a pdf.)

*All reports published October 2009 based on data available at the end of September 2009.  This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the NWMLS.  Neither the Board nor the MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data supplied by the Board or the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.  Report reflects all activity by brokers participating in the MLS.

Here are the October 2009 housing inventory supply numbers going back five years for selected Eastside areas.*  Months of Inventory (MOI) refers to the number of months it would take the current housing supply to be completely sold if no new listings were added.  (Lower numbers = more seller-friendly market.)

The geographical area is marked at the top left of each chart.  You can also click here to view stats for all Seattle and Eastside areas (opens as a pdf.) 

 *All reports published October 2009 based on data available at the end of September 2009.  This representation is based in whole or in part on data supplied by the NWMLS.  Neither the Board nor the MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data supplied by the Board or the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.  Report reflects all activity by brokers participating in the MLS.

The Seattle and Puget Sound housing inventory numbers for July 2009 show that the real estate market is continuing to become more balanced.  In the heat maps below red indicates a seller’s market, green indicates a buyer’s market, and yellow indicates a balanced market.

(Click on the map to see a larger image.)

A seller’s market is generally defined as 0 to 3 months worth of remaining inventory, meaning the time it would take to sell everything on the market if no new homes were listed, while a buyer’s market is generally seen as 6 months or more.

(Because of the traditionally high real estate activity level and shorter market times in the Puget Sound area, some people feel that a buyer’s market for Seattle area real estate starts at under 6 months of remaining inventory.)

There were some trade-offs, notably the Redmond and Sammamish plateau markets moving from a buyer’s to a balanced market, while the south Bellevue and Issaquah regions made the opposite shift.

If anyone you know is shopping for house rentals on Craigslist, please make sure they know about a scam that apparently has been going on for a while.

It was brought to my attention by an agent in my office whose client had called on a house advertised on Craigslist as available for rent at $2,200 a month.  The client offered $2,000, to which the listing agent replied that the owner would not accept that.

The next day he saw the same home listed for rent at $1,800 a month, but with different contact information.  He called and was told that before he could see the home he needed to fill out a complete application, which it turns out required ALL of his information, including his social security number and driver license number.

The client realized something fishy was up and called the person he had talked to the first time around to ask what was going on.  As it turns out, the home was still listed with that agent and still for rent at $2,200.

The second listing was a fake, created by scammers to get people to divulge all of their personal information by filling out a phony rental application.

Bottom line?  Be extremely cautious before giving out ANY information to people you are not sure are legitimate.  I personally think Craigslist is a great resource and I know they’re trying to crack down on this kind of activity, but ultimately it’s up to us to keep ourselves safe.

If you know someone who is searching for home rentals on Craigslist, please make sure they’re aware of this scam!

Tastin’ n’ Racin’

June 6 to June 7, Lake Sammamish State Park, Issaquah

Spend a weekend at the beach looking at restored hydroplanes and runabouts. Enjoy food, live music, arts and crafts, as well as a Family Fun area.

20606 SE 56th Street, Issaquah

Maple Valley Days

June 12 to June 14, Lake Wilderness Park, Maple Valley

Have a fun-filled day shopping from 75 food and art vendors, riding carnival rides, and watching the parade.

224th Avenue SE, Maple Valley

Sorticulture, Everett’s Garden Arts Festival

June 12 to June 14, American Legion Memorial Park, Everett

This art festival unites art and garden for creative outdoor living. Artists create blown glass, water features, birdhouses, pottery and more for the garden.

145 Alverson Boulevard, Everett

Hawaiian Canoe Races

June 13, Thorton A. Sullivan Park, Everett

Find your inner Aloha! Enjoy a day of watching outrigger canoe racing and listening to Hawaiian music.

11 a.m. to 4 p.m. | 11405 Silver Lake Road, Everett

Washington Brewers Festival 2009

June 19 to June 21, Saint Edward State Park, Kenmore

Pick from nearly 200 beers on tap while enjoying live music, a craft fair and a Brewer’s Keg Toss Contest.  There is also a Kids Playground.

14445 Juanita Drive NE, Kenmore | (425) 823-2992

Edmonds Art Festival

June 19 to June 21, Frances Anderson Center, Edmonds

One of the Pacific Northwest’s oldest and largest arts festivals, with nearly 240 featured artists along with children’s activities, musicians and a wine bar.

700 Main Street, Edmonds | (425) 771-6412

Fremont Fair

June 20 to June 21, Downtown Fremont, Seattle

Seattle’s Best Annual Street Event is the eclectic Fremont fair. Proceeds support local anti-poverty programs.

1501 North 45th Street, Seattle | (206) 649-6706

Auburn Kids Day

June 19, Game Farm Park, Auburn

This is a great event for kids, with Inflatable rides, arts and crafts, face painting, miniature golf and much more.

11 a.m. to 4 p.m. | 3030 R Street SE, Auburn | (253) 931-3043

Live Arts Festival

June 27 to June 28, Park at Bothell Landing, Bothell

Excellent art, good food, live entertainment and free bike racks make this a fine summer event.

10 a.m. to 6 p.m. | 9919 NE 180th Street, Bothell | (206) 310-9465

Shoreline Arts Festival

June 27 to June 28, Shoreline Community Center, Seattle

Two stages of music and dance as well as hands-on art activities, dance lessons and a marketplace.

18560 1st Avenue NE, Seattle | (206) 417-4645

Rock ‘n’ Roll Seattle Marathon and Half Marathon

June 27, Seattle

Kicking off the annual Seafair summer celebration, the races feature 70 live bands and 40 cheer squads along their route from Tukwila to Qwest Field.

Starts at 7 a.m. | (206) 461-5800

911 Safety Saturday

June 27, Imagine Children’s Museum, Everett

Are you prepared for an emergency? This fun day of emergency preparedness includes bicycle safety, child safety kits, first aid and CPR demonstrations, and fire prevention.

10 a.m. to 4 p.m. | 1502 Wall Street, Everett | (425) 258-1006

Midsommarfest

June 28, Saint Edward State Park, Kenmore

A traditional Swedish celebration of the summer solstice, with the raising of a garlanded Midsommar pole and hundreds of costumed musicians and dancers.

11 a.m. to 6 p.m. | 14445 Juanita Dr. NE, Kenmore | (425) 823-2992

The New York times has a really interesting interactive graphic today about unemployment  trends and how they relate to the end of past recessions.

Unemployment rose to 8.9% in April 2009, but this was actually better than expected and has some economists wondering if the slowing pace of new job losses means we’re seeing the beginning signs of recovery.

They point out that April’s hiring was boosted by the government hiring of census takers, and that private hiring actually decreased a bit.

Click here to read the article, and definitely click here to see the interactive graphic, it’s worth a look.

Yesterday the New York Times ran an article that talked about how we may be seeing signs of a housing recovery in Sacramento County,which was hit hard and early by the housing crisis.

Sales are up 45% from a year ago, and other areas such as Las Vegas and parts of Florida are also showing significant increases.

Notably, prices have not increased, but are showing signs of stabilizing.  According to an analyst quoted in the article, “…this is how things might look six months before prices bottom out.”

The article points out that sales tend to recover before prices, and that sales nationwide were down 7% year-to-year in March.

What’s happening locally?

First-time home buyers are driving the market in the Seattle area right now (as well as in CA, as noted in the article).  With the surge in activity that I’ve seen personally and hear about from other agents, I expect April and May to show very strong numbers compared to earlier in the year.

Last year we had some odd perks in the spring and then a dismally slow summer.  This year the activity seems more consistent, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we again saw some slowdown during the summer months.  However, there are so many extreme factors in play right now (extremely low interest rates, the first-time home buyer credit, projections of upcoming job cuts, and the Microsoft layoffs of yesterday) that it’s hard to predict anything with a high degree of certainty.  Not trying to hedge, but I have no desire to pull a Jim Cramer….