The number of homes that went pending in the greater Seattle area in December 2011 rose more than 20 percent compared to December 2010, according to data recently published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS). Closed sales rose by seven percent year-to-year in December, and the number of active listings was down 17.2 percent. The median price of single family homes and condominiums combined dropped by 11.8 percent, from $255,000 to $225,000. The median price of a home (including houses and condos) was $291,000 in King County and $222,750 in Snohomish County.
Here’s some localized data that shows what’s going on in Seattle and on the Eastside, broken down by price range. The following graph is for residential homes on the Eastside, not including condominium units. You can see that the price range up to $350,000 is showing the strongest performance. The $350K to $1 million price ranges all show inventory decreases as well, while over $1 million is in buyer’s market status (over 6 months of supply remaining).
Eastside King County Residential Sales and Inventory (Excluding Condos) for Dec. 2011:
| Price Range | Closed Sales in December 2011 | Year-to-Year Change in Sales | Months of Supply in Dec. 2011 | Year-to-Year Change in Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1 to $349K | 144 | 112% | 2.6 | -64% |
| $350K to $499K | 113 | -18% | 3.9 | -10% |
| $500K to $749K | 141 | -20% | 3.6 | -9% |
| $750K to $999K | 40 | -13% | 4.3 | -22% |
| $1M to $1.49M | 17 | -43% | 7.5 | 20% |
| $1,5M to $2.49M | 11 | -15% | 11.4 | 26% |
| $3M and up | 0 | N/A. One sale in Dec. 2010 | N/A | N/A |
Months of supply, also called months of inventory remaining (MOI), is the number of months that supply would hold out if no new listings came on and active listings continued to close or go pending at the current rate. It can be calculated using closed sales or pending sales. Months of housing inventory remaining based on pending sales is actually a fresher look at the market, however the downside is that some of those pending sales will not close, so the numbers are less definite. Zero to 3 months of housing supply is considered a seller’s market, 3 to 6 months is a balanced market, and over 6 months is a buyer’s market.
Here’s the Eastside housing sale and inventory data for condominiums:
Eastside King County Condominium Sales and Inventory for Dec. 2011:
| Price Range | Closed Sales in December 2011 | Year-to-Year Change in Sales | Months of Supply in Dec. 2011 | Year-to-Year Change in Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1 to $349K | 99 | 111% | 6.0 | -64% |
| $350K to $499K | 21 | -54% | 4.4 | 41% |
| $500K to $749K | 7 | -70% | 6.0 | 73% |
| $750K to $999K | 3 | -83% | 13.0 | 584% |
| $1M to $1.49M | 2 | -60% | 10.5 | 110% |
| $1,5M to $2.49M | 1 | -75% | 7.0 | 75% |
| $3M and up | 0 | N/A. One sale in Dec. 2010 | N/A | N/A |
Again, you can see that the price range up to $350K is the most active. The supply column shows some extreme variations, but keep in mind that the number of units drops sharply over $350K and especially over $500K, which means that one or two sales can have a huge effect on the results in the $500K and up price ranges.
The Seattle numbers don’t get broken down into separate house and condo categories, unfortunately, but here’s what things look like in the Seattle residential market, not including condos:
Seattle In-City Residential Sales and Inventory (Excluding Condos) for Dec. 2011:
| Price Range | Closed Sales in December 2011 | Year-to-Year Change in Sales | Months of Supply in Dec. 2011 | Year-to-Year Change in Supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1 to $349K | 117 | -7% | 2.8 | -28% |
| $350K to $499K | 116 | -2% | 1.6 | -51% |
| $500K to $749K | 61 | -13% | 2.7 | -11% |
| $750K to $999K | 18 | -14% | 4.2 | -20% |
| $1M to $1.49M | 10 | -52% | 6.3 | 65% |
| $1,5M to $2.49M | 4 | -20% | 13.8 | 13% |
| $3M and up | 0 | N/A. No sales in Dec. 2010. | N/A | N/A |
For Seattle houses it’s the $350K to $499K market that saw a huge drop in inventory and is in solid seller’s market status (under 3 months of inventory remaining), along with the price ranges of up to $350K and up to $750K. The same trend in the higher price ranges that showed up on the Eastside is evident in Seattle as well, with homes over $1 million seeing an increase in inventory that leaves them in buyer’s market status.
