One of the biggest misconceptions about the Seattle area housing market is that it gets much busier during the summer. In reality, from a sales standpoint things typically heat up the most in the spring (usually starting earlier than even spring sellers expect), slow down starting in June, perk up again during the fall, and then drop off more dramatically as we approach Thanksgiving and Christmas.
The last few years have been anything but typical, but the graph below (2006 to 2010, with my notations in red) still shows what the typical pending sales and sold trends look like.
The year 2006 was pretty typical around Seattle, even though much of the rest of the country was beginning to take a hit in the housing market. The red line above shows pending sales peaking in May and dropping off throughout the summer, with a slight perk in August and October.
August of 2007 was the start of the big slide for local sales, and happened to coincide with the summer market. The year of 2008 was hardly typical but still shows pending sales dropping in July and August. During the late summer of 2009 sales were boosted by the home buyer tax credit that had a November 30 deadline, and in 2010 you can see that the extended tax credit had a positive effect on what would already have been a typical spring surge.
Bottom line? Since the home buyer tax credit spurred demand in the spring and ended just when we typically would be experiencing a summer slowdown in sales, expect housing numbers over the next few months to show a more dramatic decline than usual. What happens in the fall, when we usually experience an upsurge in home buyer activity, will be interesting to see and may say more about the true state of the housing market.
Note to summer sellers: There is the danger of pricing based on spring numbers (understandably) as you approach a summer market. Keep in mind what kind of housing demand shift you’re likely to experience.
Note to future spring sellers: I usually recommend starting about four weeks earlier than you probably plan to, since many home buyers who decide to make a home purchase get ready very early in the year. (A colleague of mine once sent out a great postcard to her clients with the tagline ‘Those Tulips Are Costing You Thousands!”, meaning that sellers who wait for spring flowers to make their home pretty are likely to miss pent up demand from potential home buyers who got pre-approved shortly after the New Year.)
Sorry, comments are closed for this post.